Roland Garros Draw is out. It was released yesterday, 25th May 2023. They did not wait until the Qualifiers were all done. You can find the Men’s Singles Draw here and the complete PDF here.
Here is how the projected Men’s Singles Round of 16 looks given the seeds hold.
I think the draw is balanced and much better than last time around. Here is the projected path of 3rd seed Novak Djokovic based on the draw.
Just like last year, he isn’t going to face much challenge in the early rounds. In contrast to last year, this might be a good thing for Djokovic who is struggling for form and wants to peak in Paris. The first two rounds are light and the only real challenge might begin when he faces Davidovich Fokina in R3.
Hurkacz in R4 can be a good match as well but I have my doubts on whether the Polish star can make it that far. His form this year hasn’t been promising.
Djokovic is projected to play one of Rublev/Khachanov. Rublev has never progressed past the quarterfinals in his slam career so far. He is having a good year though. He won the first Masters 1000 on clay this year at Monte Carlo where he came back from 1-4 down in the decider against Holger Rune. He then went on to play in the final at ATP 250 Srpska.
Having said that, him not going past the QFs in his slam career so far isn’t an encouraging sign and his record against Djokovic at slams is not good either by any means (Novak leads H2h 3-1). Thus a more challenging opponent for the Serbian in the quarterfinal might not be Rublev but his Russian counterpart, Khachanov.
Karen Khachanov is having a wonderful year and has made the semifinals at the Australian Open this year. He is consistently making appearances in the latter stages of big tournaments such as Masters 1000s and Grand Slams. Khachanov’s form and experience of navigating tough draws make him a tougher opponent for Djokovic than Rublev in my opinion.
Djokovic is drawn in the same half of the draw as top seed Carlos Alcaraz, and thus they will not be playing in the finals. But before that, Carlos has to navigate a challenging draw.
He is projected to play one of Shapovalov/Nakashima in R3 but his real test will begin when he faces one of Norrie/Musetti in R4. Both of them have won matches against Alcaraz recently and can pull an upset on the Spanish if they have their day.
If he navigates this tricky round, he is projected to play one of Tsitsipas/FAA/Korda in the quarterfinals and given the form and injury updates, Tsitsipas is most likely going to be his opponent. Korda has been out for months due to injury since the Australian Open and FAA has also pulled out from ATP Lyon 250 this week due to injury.
Carlos has a good record against the Greek (leads 4-0 in H2H). But Tsitsipas has previously made the final here at RG in 2021 and is a regular in the deep stages of slams. It should be a cracking RG in my opinion with a balanced draw and some good matches lined up later in the tournament if the seeds hold.
At the other side of the draw, 2nd seed Medvedev is drawn with Casper Ruud, Jannik Sinner, and Holger Rune. It will be interesting to see how Medvedev fairs at RG given his excellent form on clay this year and having won the Rome Masters 1000 last week.
My prediction for the RG remains the same as 2 weeks ago. I think Carlos Alcaraz is the one who is going to make the most of this opportunity to take his slam tally to 2.
Even with Medvedev in excellent form and Holger Rune rising fast, I will be surprised if somebody else other than Alcaraz/Djokovic/Tsitsipas wins RG. Best of 5 is a different gravy of tennis and Medvedev’s first few matches will determine if he won’t gas up later in the tournament.
Holger Rune is one the most complete players on the tour right now but even his fitness level in best of 5 tennis remains skeptical. Thus it is a no-brainer to predict that either Alcaraz rises to claim RG or we witness Djokovic peak and claim his 23rd Grand Slam title.
By all measures, this is going to be a very open and exciting RG after a long time and I am all in for it. I wish all the players the best of luck.